My opinion:
Traditional democratic targets: Economy, Jobs, Health Care, Education, Environment seem to have been abandoned in the last few weeks of the campaign.
Problem1: for Kerry is that everyone is focusing on the war and while the Economy, Jobs, HealthCare, and Education are not perceived to be wonderful, they are not terrible either. Environment might be the exception, but all the voters carry is going to get from that, he has already gotten. There does seem to be a surge in the adds targeted at African American voters which also might give gains.
Problem 2: Kerry has to spend so much of his political time explaining perceived or real flip-flops (some of which come from the Senate voting record that is not a good bell weather because of all the crap that can get attached to a bill on which you can't line item vote). The 15 or 30 second sound bites can only cover so much offense if your having to defend yourself. So he is basically limited to one offensive topic.
Opportunity 1: Since he is behind in the polls and the war is on everyones mind, if Kerry comes out saying that Bush is handling the war badly and something catastophic happens in Iraq between now and the election he can say "see, I told you so" and pick up some votes.
Opportunity 2: The press (perhaps not wrongly) tends to keep the president on the defensive on the progress on the war , so there is a synergesic (sp) effect when attacking the war that helps build Kerry's message.
Opportunity 3: The debate may offer up opportunities in bringing another issue or Bush gaffe to the forefront of the issues and make up for the limited type of attacks that Kerry is making now.
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3 comments:
"Environment might be the exception, but all the voters carry is going to get from that, he has already gotten. There does seem to be a surge in the adds targeted at African American voters which also might give gains."
I think that you are right about Environmental voters. For now, they are a stable group solidly in the Democrat's favor. The republican party has been actively courting the black vote and has made some small progress. I think that this trend will continue, but you may be right here too. A few inflamatory and exploitive ads along the lines of "Bush disenfranchised black voters and stole the election" will probably win more votes than the republicans will.
The problem with this argument is that it applies to your list of things Kerry can't run on too. I mean don't you think that if the Dems can win over black votes despite ruining their lives that they can win over other americans on the economy despite the fact that it is pretty good? Bush authorized a greater increase in spending for education than any other president, but I think that the Dems are certain that they will win some votes on that issue too.
You are spot on about the flip-flop problem. He is, by virtue of having been in the Senate, on the defensive, right or wrong.
Your idea of a strategy of synergy with the press is really good. That makes perfect sense. In general the Left gets this deal while the Right has to fight against it. Perhaps this offsets Kerry's natural senatorial disadavantage.
If we capture bin Ladin or have a decisive defeat of the insurgents or some other really good thing were to happen then Kerry's focus on the War would be hurtful to him. So the argument has to be that the chances are much better that the Press and the Dems will be able to convince the voters that the war is going badly. I think that this is a good bet. Americans are very different than they used to be and many of us have no stomach for this sort of thing.
What exactly is your point about the debates? Are you saying that Kerry is specifically holding some issues in check to release them at the debates hoping that Bush then won't have time to respond?
Yes, I think Kerry was holding some things back for the debates. I think his sudden focus on afganistan and bin laden is one of those things (although this is not one of the things I was thinking on at the time).
As to the economy/african american similarities, I honestly think most peoples opinion on the economy comes from their own paycheck and spin is only effective if there is a perceived negative change.
Well, Bush did seem to be at a loss for words. Dick Morris said he was over-prepared and thus could not "dumb it down" for quick debate style responses. I don't know.
Were you surprised by Kerry? I mean I would have been prepared for everything he said. Of course he is going to say "you diverted resources from Afghanistan and let bin-ladin get away." I did not expect the weird "outsourcing" rhetoric. That made Kerry seem flippant and overly-politcal about the terrorists to me.
Still, Bush did behave just as you prdicted.
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